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But as the study points out, “societies are likely to adapt in reality.”
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Assuming that no society will adapt to rising seas in any way between now and 2100, large areas of the world will experience regular flooding, causing $ 55 trillion in damage annually by 2100 (2005 dollar data), or approximately 5 per cent of the global gross domestic product. One can realize how far these predictions are from reality thanks to a massively cited research, represented in the graph above. All three titles, however, are based on studies that assume the implausible hypothesis that between now and the end of the century no society in the world will make any adaptation. The breathtaking tone of most of the chronicles is also evident: the Washington Post screams that rising sea levels could “leave 187 million people homeless,” CNN fear a «future underwater» e Use Today is distressed for tens of trillions of dollars in predicted flood damage. A new research documents how the most serious mistake of sea level rise studies is their propensity to neglect human adaptation, inflating the dangers deriving from floods in 2100 up to 1,300 times. Nonetheless, the media often pump out unrealistic projections of climate catastrophes, ignoring adaptation instead. As sea levels rise, governments will build defenses, such as the levees, flood walls, and drainage systems that have protected New Orleans this year from the worst of Hurricane Ida’s ferocity. Rising temperatures will reduce yields if farmers continue to keep the same crops, but they will likely adapt by growing different varieties and plants. Yes, the climate is likely to change, but human habits will too.Īdaptation will not completely get rid of the costs of global warming, but it will definitely bring them down. cities by the end of the century if global warming continues rapidly – but only if it is assumed that people will not resort to more air conditioning. For instance, a study that has had wide echo showed that heatwaves could kill thousands of people in 15 major U.S. Just find a shocking trend in place and project it into the future, ignoring everything humanity could do to adapt.
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It’s easy to fabricate climate disasters. Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( Pnas) * * * Global costs of floods with and without human adaptation. The purpose of this column is to highlight scientific data often overlooked in the dominant narrative about the climate, yet no less important than the fact that “climate change is a real and man-made phenomenon,” as Lomborg argues.
Anno 2070 how to build underwater series#
The following is the eighth in a series of articles signed by Bjørn Lomborg and published by Tempi exclusively for Italy in view of Cop26, the global climate conference scheduled for November 2021 in Glasgow. The statue of Christopher Columbus decorated with a snorkelling mask: Greenpeace demonstration in Barcelona against sea level rise, 27 April 2019 (photo Ansa)